Growth of tree (Pinus sylvestris) and shrub (Amelanchier ovalis) species is constrained by drought with higher shrub sensitivity in dry sites.

We lack understanding of how variable is radial growth of coexisting tree and shrub species, and how growth is constrained by drought depending on site aridity. Here, we compared the radial growth of two widespread and coexisting species, a winter deciduous shrub (Amelanchier ovalis Medik.) and an evergreen conifer tree (Pinus sylvestris L.). We sampled four sites in Northeastern Spain subjected to different aridity levels and used dendrochronological methods to quantify growth patterns and responses to climate variables. The growth of the two species varied between regions, being lower in the driest sites. The first-order autocorrelation (growth persistence) was higher in more mesic sites but without clear differences between species. Tree and shrub growth negatively responded to elevated summer temperatures and positively to spring-summer precipitation and wet conditions. However, negative growth responses of the shrub to drought were only observed in the two driest sites in contrast to widespread responses of the tree. Abrupt growth reductions were common in the drier sites, but resilience indices show that the two species rapidly recovered pre-drought growth levels. The lower growth synchrony of the shrub as compared to the tree can be due to the multistemmed architecture, fast growth and low stature of the shrub. Besides, the high dependency of the shrub growth on summer rainfall can explain why drought limitations were only apparent in the two driest sites. In any case, results point out to the dendrochronological potential of shrubs, which is particularly relevant giving its ability to inhabit woodlands and treeless regions under harsh climatic conditions. Nevertheless, further research is required to elucidate the capacity of shrub species to tolerate drought, as well as to understand how shrubs thrive in water- and cold-limited environments.

Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach.

Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmental factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addition, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explanatory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empirical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process-based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a substantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.

Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests.

The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.

Impact of successive spring frosts on leaf phenology and radial growth in three deciduous tree species with contrasting climate requirements in central Spain.

Rear-edge tree populations forming the equatorward limit of distribution of temperate species are assumed to be more adapted to climate variability than central (core) populations. However, climate is expected to become more variable and the frequency of climate extremes is forecasted to increase. Climatic extreme events such as heat waves, dry spells and spring frosts could become more frequent, and negatively impact and jeopardize rear-edge stands. To evaluate these ideas, we analyzed the growth response of trees to successive spring frosts in a mixed forest, where two temperate deciduous species, Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech) and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. (sessile oak), both at their southernmost edge, coexist with the Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. (Pyrenean oak). Growth reductions in spring-frost years ranked across species as F. sylvatica > Q. petraea > Q. pyrenaica. Leaf flushing occurred earlier in F. sylvatica and later in Q. pyrenaica, suggesting that leaf phenology was a strong determinant of spring frost damage and stem growth reduction. The frost impact depended on prior climate conditions, since warmer days prior to frost occurrence predisposed to frost damage. Autumn Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data showed delayed leaf senescence in spring-frost years and subsequent years as compared with pre-frost years. In the studied forest, the negative impact of spring frosts on Q. petraea and especially on F. sylvatica growth, was considerably higher than the impacts due to drought. The succession of four spring frosts in the last two decades determined a trend of decreasing resistance of radial growth to frosts in F. sylvatica. The increased frequency of spring frosts might prevent the expansion and persistence of F. sylvatica in this rear-edge Mediterranean population.